Sellers pulled back. Rates went up. Here is what that means for your week.

What shifted this week

New listings fell 14.3% week-over-week on April 25.

The prior week, they jumped 12.9%. Sellers came in, then pulled back fast. That kind of week-to-week swing is not noise. It is sellers testing the market on a good news cycle, then retreating when the demand does not show up.

Active listings are still up 2.7% versus this time last year. But that gap is compressing. Active inventory fell 2.1% week-over-week. The supply cushion that built through early 2026 is starting to deflate.

Listing prices fell 0.6% from last week and sit 2.3% below April 2025. Homes are taking slightly longer to sell. Days on market is up 2% year-over-year.

The macro this week

Rates moved higher again. The 30-year fixed is at 6.30%, up from 6.23% the prior week. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.42%, up 12 basis points week-over-week.

Consumer sentiment is at 53.3. That is near recessionary levels. It is not a technical recession. It is a confidence recession. Buyers are hesitating. Sellers who are serious about selling know they are fighting that.

Monthly housing supply is at 9.7 months nationally. In a balanced market, it sits at 6. The national picture still favors buyers, even as some metros are rotating.

Metro spotlight: Austin, TX

Austin sits at -46 on the Pendulum. That is the deepest buyer-favored position of any major metro in the country right now.

Supply is high. Days on market are elevated. Sellers who listed in late 2024 or early 2025 are looking at a market that moved against them. Rates are higher than when they listed. Buyer traffic is thinner.

If you work Austin, the expired and FSBO lists from 90 to 180 days ago are your highest-leverage conversations this week. Those sellers had expectations set in a different market. They know things have changed. They just have not decided what to do about it yet.

That is your opening.

What to do with this

Pull your expired list for the last 90 days. Filter for anything that sat longer than 45 days before expiring. That is a seller who already knows the market is hard.

Do not call them about price. Call them about timing. The question is not "will you cut the price?" The question is "what changes if you wait another 60 days?"

At 6.30% rates and consumer sentiment at 53.3, probably nothing changes. That is an honest conversation. Honest conversations close.

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The Unvelo Pendulum tracks 100+ US metros weekly. Each Monday this letter covers what shifted nationally and puts one metro under the lens.